Oral Presentation Australasian Groundwater Conference 2017

How much water is CSG development actually producing compared with early predictions? (387)

Jim Underschultz 1 , Sue Vink 1
  1. University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Coal Seam Gas development in Queensland is currently going through a transition from less than 300 bcf/yr (~315 PJ/yr) for domestic consumption to ~1400 bcf/yr (nearly 1500 PJ/yr) by late 2017 driven by LNG export contracts. Prior to this ramp up in production, industry, government and academia have been forecasting not only gas but associated water production for the various purposes of financial investment decisions and field development planning, prudent governance and regulatory planning, and estimation of potential environmental impacts for planning management, monitoring and mitigation strategies. During the course of resource development, prediction methodologies and modelling sophistication varies greatly as more data becomes available and uncertainty is reduced. In Queensland, now that 6 LNG trains are running there is now a substantial and growing data inventory to history match numerical models. Measured associated water production from CSG development (up to July 2015) equates to ~65GL/yr with combined operator forecasts defining a peak projected to occur for about 10 years at ~80 GL/yr, substantially less than earlier forecasts.

In this paper we review the historical forecasting of CSG water production in Queensland leading up to the development and operation of CSG for LNG export, and compare that to the current actual produced volumes now that the projects have come on stream.

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